The National Association of Realtors (NAR) recently reported that their data shows a national, median home price decline of 4.37%. This was the decline in the third quarter of 2011 and values declined in 111 out of 150 metropolitan areas tracked. The number of metro areas showing a decline in housing values was little changed from the number showing declines in the second quarter.
Separately Integrated Asset Services (IAS), owner of the IAS360 House Price Index, reported that home prices ROSE 4% during the third quarter. How could this be? You would think that the NAR would have a database of property transactions that is wide and deep. Although the information in the various MLS around the country is often less than accurate, where could IAS get better information, public records? The public records are at least as suspect as the MLS in most jurisdictions.
I'm not saying that the NAR or IAS are wrong. The problem with statistics is that if the data used is skewed, the result is skewed. If the sample from the population of transactions used is skewed to the upside or downside your results are not indicative of the true state of affairs. After all of the recent news bites that have been released about the continuing decline in housing values it seems very odd that IAS would release a report about housing values climbing. To their credit, they said that this is the calm before the storm, and indicated that the shadow inventory of foreclosures have yet to fully impact house values.
Separately Integrated Asset Services (IAS), owner of the IAS360 House Price Index, reported that home prices ROSE 4% during the third quarter. How could this be? You would think that the NAR would have a database of property transactions that is wide and deep. Although the information in the various MLS around the country is often less than accurate, where could IAS get better information, public records? The public records are at least as suspect as the MLS in most jurisdictions.
I'm not saying that the NAR or IAS are wrong. The problem with statistics is that if the data used is skewed, the result is skewed. If the sample from the population of transactions used is skewed to the upside or downside your results are not indicative of the true state of affairs. After all of the recent news bites that have been released about the continuing decline in housing values it seems very odd that IAS would release a report about housing values climbing. To their credit, they said that this is the calm before the storm, and indicated that the shadow inventory of foreclosures have yet to fully impact house values.
