Fannie Mae's Outlook is Gloomy

Posted by Daniel Jones on Jun 22, 2011 6:00:00 PM
FNMA's recent forecast reviews much of what has been happening in the market for the past few months. They report that housing starts remain at depressed levels due to competition from foreclosures, and the spring housing market has remained lackluster and shows little momentum heading into summer. They report that construction spending increased in April, but only because volatile home improvement costs pushed it up. Stripping those costs out of the data shows that construction spending actually dipped below the first quarter's average, "dashing the hope for a weather-related rebound in residential investment in the second quarter."

Mortgage purchase applications fell in May and continued to fall in early June. Pending home sales plummeted 12 percent in April. They predict that continued declining home prices will decrease household net worth and hurt consumer confidence and spending. FNMA now doesn't expect the Fed to raise interest rates until the second half of 2012.

If you have any faith in the ability of this country and its people to right the course of this ship, then sometime in the next year is a great time to buy residential real estate. I believe that some day we will look back on this time and say "that was the opportunity of our lifetimes." Just like the spring of 2009 was the time to invest in the stock market, in hindsight 2011 will probably be seen as the time to invest in housing.
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