NAR Sees Gradual Housing Recovery Based on Several Assumptions
by Adam Quinones

(My insert: This is from the end of Adam's article that you can access at the link below - Dan)

Plain and Simple: Correct me if I am putting words in Lawrence Yun's mouth here but it sounds like he is saying...IF WE CREATE 2 MILLION JOBS...IF MORTGAGE RATES ONLY RISE MODERATELY...IF LENDERS RETURN TO MORE NORMAL (SAFE) UNDERWRITING GUIDELINES...IF HOME PRICES DON'T DOUBLE-DIP...IF IF IF.....housing will only GRADUALLY RECOVER.

Sounds like a lot of IF's need to play out just to see a GRADUAL housing recovery. Oh well. We gotta start somewhere.

Call me when GSE reform is done. Call me when we figure out how in the hell we're gonna deal with excessive excess inventory. Call me when common sense makes it way back into underwriting guidelines and lenders stop overlaying already overdone overlays. Call me when the CFPB is finally set up or when the GFE and TIL are successfully combined. 

Ugh. Call me when regulators question how REALTORS GET PAID.

SORRY SORRY...

I am not attempting to start any poo flinging fests. We all need to come together as housing professionals here. My simple point is...there is a ton of uncertainty out there: Rationalizing the Spike in Mortgage Rates with No Rationality At All

http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/12302010_pending_home_sales.asp

Home Prices Are Still Too High

They would have to decline another 20% just to get back to the historical trend line.

By PETER D. SCHIFF

Most economists concede that a lasting general recovery is unlikely without a recovery in the housing market. A marked increase in defaults and foreclosures from today's already elevated levels could produce losses that overwhelm banks and trigger another, deeper financial crisis. Study after study has shown that defaults go up when falling prices put mortgage holders "underwater." As a result, the trajectory of home prices has tremendous economic significance.

Mortgage Rates: Multiple Reprices for Worse Reported. Borrowing Costs Up

by Adam Quinones - 

If 4.75 was really on the table yesterday, it's not still there today.

A thinly attended Treasury auction is cited as the culprit behind rising mortgage rates today. The worst damage hit the tape in the early afternoon hours. And we never came up for air again. Reprices for the worse were reported. More than one lender repriced for the worse x 2. When a lender "reprices for the worse", their mortgage rates rise.

Rates rose regardless of two weak economic reports.  This reaction is counter-intuitive to how one would expect the bond market to behave following a disappointing economic update. It does however remind us of the impact seasonal trading influences can have on loan pricing. This is what we said yesterday on the subject....

http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/consumer_rates/191287.aspx

Real Estate Outruns the Stock Market Again
With Investors Chasing Higher Dividend Yields, REITs Gained 27% This Year to Dow's 11%; "Ahead of the Fundamentals"

By A.D. PRUITT

Real-estate stocks are poised to end the year with gains that are twice as large as the broader stock market, the second year in a row that REITs outperformed the major stock indexes.

REITs, as measured by the Dow Jones All REIT index, were up 27% as of Tuesday's close. While that is a smaller gain than last year, when REITs posted gains of 28.5%, the 2010 results handily beat the Dow Jones Industrial Averages, up 11% as of Monday's closing and Standard & Poor's 500 index, up 12.86%.

The REIT rally was triggered by investors hunting for higher dividend yields. REIT dividend yields, while low compared to historical standards, are currently around 4% compared to 3.35% on Treasury bonds.

"The REIT yields are very attractive compared to anything else in the market," said Brad Case, vice president of research and industry information for the National Association of Real Estate Investment Trusts. Since the beginning of the year, dozens of REITs have raised dividends, an about-face from last year when many REITs were cutting or suspending dividends.

Other investors were buying real-estate stocks based on economic fundamentals, basically a belief that commercial landlords will post stronger earnings from rising rents and occupancy in 2011...

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204467204576048003509269910.html

Double dip is on the doorstep
S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city index slides into negative territory
By Inman News, Tuesday, December 28, 2010.

Inman News

A double dip in home prices is almost here, with home values down from a year ago in 16 out of 20 metro areas tracked by a Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller Home Price Index.

The S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Index - which showed annual home-price appreciation of 4.6 percent in May - re-entered negative territory in October, registering a 0.8 percent annual price decline.

Although the 20-city composite is still above its spring 2009 low, the index showed prices falling from September to October in all 20 metro areas tracked.

Six markets hit new lows for the current downturn: Atlanta, Charlotte, Miami, Portland (Ore.), Seattle and Tampa...

http://www.inman.com/news/2010/12/28/double-dip-doorstep

By ANTON TROIANOVSKI
Bloomberg News

As the market for office space shows signs of recovery, the suburbs are getting left behind.

For decades, the suburbs benefited from companies seeking lower rent, less crime and a shorter commute for many workers. But now, office buildings in many city downtowns have stopped losing tenants or are filling up again even as the office space in the surrounding suburbs continues to empty, a challenge to the post-war trend in the American workplace and a sign of the economic recovery's uneven geography...

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704058704576015660618563654.html?mod=djemRealEstate_Commercial_h

By KRIS HUDSON and ANTON TROIANOVSKI

Facing a $1 billion chunk of debt coming due Feb. 1, the CNL Hotels & Resorts Inc. properties owned by a Morgan Stanley fund have become the latest targets of opportunistic investors trying to take advantage of the woes of hotel owners who bought at the top of the market.

Similar due dates also are approaching for other owners, setting the stage for 2011 to be an active year for hotel-mortgage restructurings and takeovers. Other properties that might be up for grabs include the sprawling Atlantis resort complex in the Bahamas owned by Kerzner International Resorts Inc...

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703734204576019874170527258.html?mod=djemRealEstate_Commercial_h#

Anyone that hasn't seen the property tax series that the Atlanta Journal Constitution is doing, start checking it out. They are giving Metro Atlanta taxpayers reason to appeal  property taxes, as well as some (limited) market data to use.

http://www.ajc.com/news/dekalb/atlanta-property-taxes-north-785162.html

Although the latest changes to Georgia's property tax laws require that a notice is sent for every property, every year, it is still advisable to file a real property tax return. There is no doubt in my mind that some counties will be looking for loopholes to avoid sending out a much larger number of notices than they have in the past. As a result, for 2011, I suggest filing a return at a lower value than what they appraised it for in 2010. Then they will have to either accept your returned value, or send you a 2011 assessment notice that you can appeal. Please note that some counties require returns be filed by March 1. Contact us for additional information.

Latest CRE Price Analysis Reverses Positive Direction in October

Discounted Foreclosures Account for 25% of Home Sales in Third Quarter

by Jann Swanson on December 2, 2010